Turn the Curve Exercise Instructions

Purpose

This exercise is intended to provide groups and individuals with hands-on experience with results-based decision making through actually Turning the Curve on a specific Indicator of child, adult, family, or community well-being.

If you are completely unfamiliar with Results-Based Accountability or the Turn the Curve process, we recommend having your group read the free Results-Based Accountability Implementation Guide and/or watch the free Results-Based Accountability 101 Workshop before attempting the exercise. If you’re familiar with Results-Based Accountability but desire more in-depth information, you can access it on our Results-Based Accountability Resources page.

Step 1: Large Group Exercise

Choose the starting point for the exercise from the three options below. We recommend starting with Option #1 if you have some experience developing Results and Indicators. We recommend Option #2 for groups that need to practice choosing Indicators. If you are just starting out thinking about the well-being of a particular population, go with Option #3.

Option #1

(Given you already have a set of Results and Indicators to work with): Let’s pretend that we have already adopted a list of Results and Indicators for children and families (or another population e.g. elders).

Graph the Data: Choose an Indicator that is particularly important right now (where the future trend line is “not OK”). If possible, present a baseline of actual data for this Indicator. If a baseline has not been prepared, then create a working baseline for purposes of the exercise, by asking the following questions:

1. Where are we now?
2. Have things been getting better or worse over the last few years?
3. Has it been getting (better or worse) quickly or slowly (steepness of baseline)?
4. Where do we think it will go in the next several years if we stay on our current course (i.e. keep doing the same things we’re doing now)?

Identify Partners: Now we’re going to talk about Turning this Curve. We know that Results-Based Accountability work involves more than just one agency or department. So let’s talk about who are the partners who have something to contribute to making a difference on this curve? Brainstorm a list of potential partners (e.g. churches, schools, police, media, businesses, etc.)

Option #2

(Given you only have a set of Results to Work with): Let’s pretend we have an adopted list of Results (for children and families, or another defined population). Let’s pick one and develop Indicators for it. Brainstorm a list of candidate Indicators. Make sure each is a specific data statement (e.g. “rate of full immunizations at age 6”, not “immunizations”). Rate each candidate Indicator on three criteria, by asking the questions:

1. Communication Power: Does the public understand what we mean when we use this data statement?
2. Proxy Power: Does this data say something of central importance about the Result we are trying to measure? (Remind people that this selection process is a matter of approximation and political balance).
3. Data Power: Do we have high-quality and timely data? (Data power is high only if people can go back to their office and open a report with the data in it; it’s medium if it can be developed relatively quickly; otherwise, it’s low.)

Identify Indicators that rate high on all three criteria. These are the headline Indicators. Note also those which rate high on communication and proxy, but low on data. These become part of your Data Development Agenda. Select the most important headline Indicator from your list and go back and begin Option #1 of this part of the exercise.

Option #3

(Given you only have a Population to work with): Results-based decision making is about the well-being of a Population across a given geographic area (e.g. state, county, city, community). Such a Population can be defined as all the people in the geographic area or a subpopulation by age (e.g. children or elders) or any other condition (e.g. persons with mental illness). The one definition of subpopulation we do not use here is a client population of any particular program, agency, or service system. This is the subject of program performance measurement, a separate, interlocking form of accountability.

First, identify Results for your selected Population by asking the questions:

1. “What do we want for these people?”
2. “What do they want for themselves?”

The answers to these questions often sound like “Children (elders…) who are…” (e.g. safe, healthy, etc.). We are looking for conditions of well-being that will stand up in the public square, that the lay public will understand. This is not yet about data. Data comes in the next step when we talk about Indicators. And, generally, Results statements are not about services. That comes later when we talk about strategies to achieve these conditions of well-being. Services are generally about means, not ends. And Results are by definition ends.

Next, develop a list of candidate Results. This is a brainstorming process, and all ideas are OK if they meet the “no data” and “ends, not means” tests. The list developed here will often be rough, with overlapping statements. In a non-exercise process, there is time to wordsmith these lists and create a balanced and complete set of Results statements.

Finally, choose one Result to work on in the exercise and continue with the work in option #2.

Step 2: Small Group Work

First, divide people into groups of 6 to 10 (6 is optimal). Have them sit together around tables in a large room, or use breakout rooms if available. Remind people that they will not have enough time to do this “right.” Remember this is an exercise. Remind people to have fun.

Next, ask each group to do the following:

1. Pick a timekeeper and a reporter.
2. Tell the group who you are (5 minutes).
   1. Part 1: Pick what community you represent. You can be the whole state or a specific county, city, or neighborhood in the state.
   2. Part 2: Each person wears two hats: their everyday role, and one role from the list of potential partners. Only one person per role. (Optional: You may ask that at least one person represents an agency of particular importance to the Indicator chosen (e.g. someone should represent a school if the Indicator is 3rd-grade reading scores. Or, someone could represent a human services department if the Indicator is the rate of child abuse).
3. Pick an Indicator from the identified lift to Turn the Curve on. Discuss the baseline and present at least one forecast of the path you are on if nothing changes. Ask yourself “Is this OK?” If the answer is “yes” then pick another Indicator. (5 minutes)
4. Explore the story behind the curve. Ask, “What’s going on here? Why does the baseline look the way it does? What are the causes? What are the forces at work?’ As you try to answer this question keep a side list of things you would like to know more about. This is your Information Agenda. (15 minutes)
5. Explore what works to Turn the Curve. What do you think would work in this community to turn this curve? Make sure the discussion gets to what each partner could contribute. Make sure the ideas have sharp edges. Be specific. Make sure at least one idea is a no-cost or low-cost idea. (20 minutes)
6. Prepare to report. Choose three “what works” ideas to report. (One should be for the lead agency if one is identified.) At least one reported item should be no-cost/ low-cost. (5 minutes)

Step 3: Group Reports

Ask each group to report the following:

1. What place did you choose to be?
2. What are the three most important things going on in the Story Behind the Curve?
3. What are your three best ideas about what would work to Turn the Curve? Be specific (who would do what, when, where, how)! At least one idea must be no cost/low cost.

Step 4: Debriefing the Exercise

Consider discussing the following as a group:

1. How many people think that at least one idea from their group could actually be done and would make a difference?
2. What did you learn from this(e.g. collaboration vs blame)?
3. What was the hardest (most frustrating) about this work? Why?
4. How many people would like to have other opportunities to work in this way?
5. Think of potential next steps. Allow each person to think about the following questions for 1 minute, then poll the group, or ask tables to report:
   1. What is something I could do?
   2. What is something I could ask someone else to do, to advance this work?
6. (Optional) Ask people to speak who took specific partner roles (e.g. what did the school folks have to contribute?) Who else should be in the room for this kind of work? How could you get them to the table?
7. (Optional) Where did the groups come up with similar ideas? Does this work begin to suggest how these what works elements might be crafted into a real action agenda?
8. As a group, review what the Turn the Curve Thinking process is from start to finish:
   1. Results,
   2. Indicators,
   3. Baseline,
   4. Partners,
   5. Story Behind the Curve,
   6. What Works,
   7. Action Plan
9. Ask yourselves, “Could you do this for real in your community? How many think they could lead this kind of process?”